Zia's Question and Solution for Week 9

'Opening leads have been the subject of extensive writing - mostly very helpful. But in my experience, there are those who have a natural feel for the right lead, and those who don't.

Which category do you fall into?' - ZIA

North deals at game all. Zia is West and has this hand:

West (Zia)

Q532  Q42 Q1062 74

The bidding is as follows:

West	North	East	South
	1	Pass	1
Pass	4	Pass	4
Pass	5	Pass	5
Pass	7	Pass	Pass
Pass

North's 4 bid shows six good clubs, four-card heart support, and the values for game. South's 4 and 5 are cuebids promising first round control of the suit bid. Zia's opponents, expert players, complete a surprising auction.

What card would Zia lead?

Zia's Solution

The full deal is as shown:

	North
	74 AKJ6 8 AKQ1053
West (Zia)		East
Q532  Q42 Q1062 74		K1096  53 J9754 82
	South
	AJ8  10987 AK3 J96

Zia's answer is 2 or 4.

Let us analyse the bidding. North has shown at least ten cards in hearts and clubs. When South cuebids A, North jumps to 5 suggesting two spade losers. But when South cuebids A, North is able to jump to 7! Surely, since Zia has Q, North must have AK and solid clubs for this bidding.

If there are eight combined hearts in the NS hands, left to his own devices, South would make the normal play and finesse against Zia's Q. If there are nine, then declarer would probably play for the drop in hearts whatever Zia leads.

Assuming eight trumps, if Zia leads, say, a diamond, South would win, lead a heart to A, cross to his hand and run 10, picking up Zia's queen and making thirteen easy tricks. But if Zia leads a heart, South would find it hard to believe that Zia did so from the unsupported queen against a grand slam. South would probably play to drop East's 'marked' Q singleton or doubleton, and he would go down to defeat.

Final Result: NS win 12 tricks for -100

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