Zia's Question and Solution for Week 4

'Certain hands are much more likely to appear in books than in real life. But for once, reality and fantasy merge as you pick up an amazing hand.

There are those who would recommend a slow approach to bidding such a hand, especially when they are vulnerable and they don't want their opponents to find a profitable sacrifice.' - ZIA

Zia, West, deals and EW are vulnerable. Zia picks up this hand:

West (Zia)

4  AKQJ74 5 AKQJ9

Zia is anxious to know how many aces his partner holds, and starts the bidding with his favourite weapon - Blackwood.

The bidding is as follows:

West	North	East	South
4NT	Pass	5	5
6	Pass	Pass	6
Dbl	Pass	Pass	Pass

East shows he has one ace (Zia is not playing the convention by which the reply shows a specific ace).

As soon as Zia heard his partner had an ace, he was certain of a small slam. But South outbids Zia at the six level and, since there's an ace missing, Zia knows he can't make seven. How irritating!

There is nothing to do but extract a penalty from this cheeky sacrifice and at the same time, ensure that Zia defeats the contract, so he doubles.

What card would Zia lead?

Zia's Solution

The full deal is as shown:

	North
	65 10982 KJ4 7532
West (Zia)		East
4  AKQJ74 5 AKQJ9		1073 653 A82 10864
	South
	AKQJ982   Q109763

Zia's answer is 5.

Although there is a case for any of the other three suits, a diamond is not just the only winning lead on the actual hand, but also the safest lead in theory. Zia's partner showed one ace in the bidding, which is most likely to be A. On the actual deal, this was the case. Given Zia's use of Blackwood, East can infer that Zia was dealt singletons in diamonds and spades. On winning the ace, East will therefore return a diamond. Zia will ruff to ensure the defeat of the contract, regardless of whether or not he can cash any tricks in hearts or clubs.

If East were to hold A, not A, he would gain the lead later. Knowing that Zia was dealt singletons in diamonds and spades, East would return a heart or a club enabling Zia to cash any side suit tricks he can.

The real danger is that if South also holds a freak hand like Zia's, he might actually make six spades if Zia does not make his ruff. In that event, South's 'sacrifice' would actually earn NS 1210 points!

Final Result: NS win 11 tricks for -100

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