Zia's Question and Solution for Week 11

'The eyes of the bridge world will turn to Bermuda in January for the 50th anniversary of the Bermuda Bowl, the championship of the world. The winners will take home the most coveted trophy in bridge. Imagine that on this week's deal, you are playing in the final of the Bermuda Bowl itself. With the scores very close and a few deals only remaining, the world championship will be yours provided that you do not fail on this hand.' - ZIA

South deals and both are vulnerable. Zia, South, has this hand shown:

South (Zia)

AQJ10632  AQ 4 AKQ

The bidding is as follows:

West	North	East	South
			2
Pass	2	Pass	2
Pass	3	Pass	3
Pass	4	Pass	4NT
Pass	5	Pass	6
Pass	Pass	Pass

Zia's partner's bid of 3 promises semi positive values with a diamond suit. Zia's partner supports spades and Zia decides simply to check on aces and bid the small slam. The final contract is 6.

West leads K and the dummy appears:

North

95 J42 AJ653 J106

South (Zia)

AQJ10632  AQ 4 AKQ

Zia wins the opening lead of K with dummy's A, East following with 2 and Zia discarding 4.

What card would Zia play from dummy?

Zia's Solution

The full deal is as shown:

	North
	95 J42 AJ653 J106
West		East
K84  1063 KQ109 985		7  K9875 872 7432
	South (Zia)
	AQJ10632  AQ 4 AKQ

Zia's answer is 2, 4, or J (each of these cards is considered correct for the Orbis Hand of the Week).

There are a number of possible ways in which Zia might have played:

1. Play a Heart (Zia's Solution)

It's usually correct, in hands with more than one line of play, to combine the chances by taking finesses in short suits and playing for the drop in long suits. Zia's solution is to take the heart finesse at trick two. This will succeed if East has K, or if either opponent has the singleton K. This combined chance of the heart finesse and the singleton K is the best line at around 56%, a few percentage points superior to the other lines of play.

'Not very much in it, you may think, but when the world championship is at stake, you cannot afford to overlook the slightest edge in your favour!'

Final Result: NS win 12 tricks for +1430

2. Play a Low Spade

Play a low spade to Q. This will succeed when East has K singleton or doubleton. It will also succeed if West has K singleton or doubleton and East has K, for Zia will be able to cross to 9 later and take the heart finesse. Even if West has Kxx, Zia may still get home if West mistakenly wins the first round of spades and East has K. If West defends perfectly by ducking with Kxx when Zia plays low to Q (this is the Bermuda Bowl final where perfect defence is expected) then this line of play provides little more than a 40% chance.

3. Play a High Spade

Run 9 at trick two. This line will succeed whenever East has K, except when he has Kxxx and not K, providing slightly less than a 50% chance.

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